šŸ˜Ø Recession Incoming?

PLUS: Don Lemon sues Elon Musk and X for $35M; Chevronā€™s historic move out of California.

Todayā€™s market performance šŸ†ļø

S&P 500: -3.00% šŸ“‰
Nasdaq: -3.43% šŸ“‰
Dow 30: -2.60% šŸ“‰
Russell 2000: -3.52% šŸ“‰

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TOP STORY
šŸ“‰ Recession Incoming?

Todayā€™s S&P Heatmap (šŸ“ø Unusual Whales)

America's unemployment problem is getting worse by the day, and it might bring down the global economy with it.

The U.S. unemployment rate rose to a nearly three-year high of 4.3% in July, up from 4.1% in June.

This marked the fourth consecutive monthly increase amid a hiring slowdown.

This surge in unemployment is causing many to fear the worst: a recession.

šŸ’¬ Over $1.4 trillion was wiped out from the U.S. stock market on Monday.

Which is why many online brokers reported outages this morning:

  • Fidelity

  • E-Trade

  • Vanguard

  • Robinhood

  • TD Ameritrade

  • Charles Schwab

People want to get their money out ASAP, and who can blame ā€˜em?

šŸ“ø Bloomberg

But while an actual US recession still seems far off, hopefully, Japanā€™s economy is in a free fall right now.

While many of us were asleep, Japanā€™s stock market experienced its most significant fall in 37 years.

Japanā€™s Nikkei Stock Average, a key benchmark index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange, plunged 12.4% after a selling frenzy.

In less than four weeks, the Nikkei has fallen more than 25% after hitting an all-time high on July 11.

But if they hit an all-time high not too long ago, whyā€™d they just crash?

šŸ’¬ Monday saw the Nikkei's worst single-day percentage drop since October 20, 1987, the Tuesday after Black Monday in the U.S., when the Dow Jones fell 22.6%.

šŸ’¬ Other Asian markets also fell, with South Korea and Taiwan both down more than 8%

WSJ

šŸ“ø Reuters

Most analysts said the sell-off wasn't due to interest rates or economic data but was likely caused by the rise of Japanā€™s Yen, which had been widely used for funding investments.

What do I mean?

  • For years, investors used cheap yen to buy riskier assets like U.S. stocks, expecting Japan's low interest rates and weak yen to continue.

  • However, because of the yen's poor performance, Japan's central bank raised rates, causing the yen to rise 7.6% against the U.S. dollar in the past week.

  • On Monday, the rising yen caused investors who borrowed yen to face margin calls, forcing them to buy yen to cover their positions.

  • This increased the yen's value even more, triggering more margin calls.

The yen's rapid rise led to a chain reaction of selling and margin calls, forcing investors to quickly sell assets to cover their losses and further destabilizing the market.

Damn, so economies are falling left and right. Thatā€™s definitely not how I planned to start the week, but alright then.

"The yen's quick rise is hurting Japanese stocks and causing investors to undo a popular trade where they borrowed yen to buy other assets, mainly U.S. tech stocks."

Kyle Rodda, Senior Financial Market Analyst at Capital.com

šŸ’¬ The Yen has risen 11.49% vs. the U.S. Dollar in the past month.

SOCIAL MEDIA
šŸ’¼ Don Lemon sues Elon Musk and X for $35M

šŸ“ø Deadline

Oh god, what did Elon do now?

  • The lawsuit, filed last week, alleges that Musk made false promises to Lemon to host a show on X and then failed to pay him.

  • It claims Musk used the partnership's buzz to promote X but then reneged on the deal without ever compensating Lemon.

Damn, thatā€™s not nice, Elon. Especially when Lemon had "incurred hundreds of thousands of dollars in expenses" to prepare for the show on YOUR platform.

What went wrong? šŸ¤”

  • Lemon originally interviewed Musk in the premiere episode of "The Don Lemon Show" in March.

  • But, shortly after the episode was taped, Musk forced it to be scrapped before it could air.

Thatā€™s odd; wouldnā€™t it have really benefited X?

Yes, it definitely would have, but Musk said on X that Lemon's approach "was basically just CNN, but on social media, which doesn't work, as evidenced by the fact that CNN is dying."

Meaning, he clearly did not love Mr. Lemonā€™s interview style.

šŸ’¬ Ex-Fox anchor Tucker Carlson joined X in June 2023, and his show has brought in hundreds of millions of views.

So, whatā€™s the bottom line?

Lemon is officially accusing Musk and X of fraud, negligent misrepresentation, misappropriation of name and likeness, breach of contract, and unjust enrichment.

He is seeking damages and other relief.

ENERGY
šŸšŖ Chevronā€™s historic move out of California

šŸ“ø Getty Images

For the first time since its founding in 1879, Chevron is moving out of California.

The oil giant is joining many other public companies seeking a more tax-friendly state.

Which one? Surprise, surprise!

Chevron plans to relocate its headquarters from San Ramon, California, to Houston, Texas, before the end of the year.

Damn, Texas, yā€™all have done it again!

šŸ’¬ Texas is the #1 state for business headquarters moved to in the past five years.

Commercial Real Estate Services (CBRE)

šŸ’¬ Elon Musk announced in July that heā€™d be moving both X and Space X headquarters from California to Texas.

šŸ“ø Getty Images

Muskā€™s reasoning for leaving is actually pretty similar to Chevronā€™s; both parties have had a ton of beef with California politicians.

Last year, the state sued U.S. oil companies, including Chevron, the nation's second-largest, claiming they had deceived the public about the risks of fossil fuels.

šŸ’¬ "We believe California has a number of policies that raise costs, hurt consumers, discourage investment, and ultimately, we think that's not good for the economy in California and for consumers."

Mike Wirth, Chevron CEO

Not to mention, California's anti-Chevron policies include a low-carbon fuel standard, cap-and-trade fees, drilling restrictions, and a penalty on ā€œexcessiveā€ refinery margins.

Plus, the Richmond City Council has put a $1 per barrel tax on Chevronā€™s refinery on the November ballot.

Itā€™s safe to say California and Chevron donā€™t like each other, but Big Oil may have just gotten the last laugh with a cold-blooded "bitch, bye."

šŸ“‰ Chevron ($CVX) stock is down -3.22% this year.

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